Fund Selection Strategies: Beyond Past Performance (2026)

In today's rapidly evolving investment landscape, the approach to fund selection and monitoring has become increasingly complex. Nicolas Gisbert, Head of Sales at Morningstar Research, recently shared his insights on how wealth managers can navigate these challenges. His presentation at the Hubbis Malaysia Wealth Management Forum 2026 emphasized the need for a disciplined and forward-looking strategy.

The Changing Investment Landscape

One of the key takeaways from Gisbert's talk is the expanding investment universe. Morningstar, once focused primarily on mutual funds, now covers a vast array of investment options, including ETFs, private markets, and alternatives. This expansion offers more opportunities but also introduces complexity.

The rise of AI and data-driven technologies is another significant force shaping the industry. Gisbert highlighted how AI is transforming data collection and analysis, creating both internal efficiencies and external opportunities for clients. However, he emphasized that AI's effectiveness relies on verified data and analyst-reviewed content.

Personalization is also becoming a structural trend. Clients are increasingly seeking investment strategies that align with their values and preferences, whether it's ESG considerations or Shariah compliance. Gisbert believes AI will play a crucial role in making customized portfolios more accessible.

A Structured Fund Selection Process

Gisbert outlined a five-step process for fund selection. The first step involves defining the relevant universe based on asset class, sector, and other criteria. This ensures that funds are evaluated within the appropriate context.

The second step is quantitative screening, where measurable criteria are applied to build a long list of potential funds. While performance is considered, Gisbert cautioned against relying solely on past returns. He advocated for a more holistic approach, incorporating factors like risk-adjusted returns, active share, and alpha consistency.

The third step is qualitative screening, where Morningstar's analyst-led research comes into play. Analysts assess the fund's people, process, and parent structure to determine its potential for future performance.

Due diligence and portfolio fit are the fourth and fifth steps, respectively. Wealth managers must understand the fund's operational infrastructure and how it aligns with the client's overall portfolio and risk profile.

Beyond Past Performance

Gisbert stressed the importance of looking beyond past performance when selecting funds. He emphasized the need to consider risk-adjusted returns, consistency of alpha generation, and qualitative factors. Fees were also highlighted as a critical determinant of outcomes, with Gisbert noting the intensifying fee pressure across the asset management industry.

The Morningstar Medalist Rating Framework

Morningstar's Medalist Rating provides a qualitative assessment of funds on a forward-looking basis. The framework is built around three pillars: People, Process, and Parent. These pillars evaluate the investment team's quality and experience, the investment process, and the asset management firm's stability and culture, respectively.

The Medalist Rating assigns funds a Gold, Silver, Bronze, Neutral, or Negative rating, with Gold representing the top 15% of positive alpha potential. Gisbert explained that the rating is designed to assess a fund's ability to generate future alpha, rather than simply labeling past performance.

Common Pitfalls and the Need for Discipline

Gisbert identified several common mistakes in fund selection, including chasing performance, ignoring fees, poor diversification, neglecting risk assessment, and overlooking fund manager changes. He emphasized the importance of a repeatable framework that goes beyond recent returns and marketing.

The Role of AI and Data

Morningstar's MCP server connects its vast universe of data and research with AI tools like Claude, Copilot, and ChatGPT. This allows clients to query data and insights directly, making trusted research more accessible. However, Gisbert cautioned that AI's effectiveness relies on high-quality source material and human oversight.

Conclusion

In a rapidly changing investment landscape, fund selection requires a disciplined and comprehensive approach. Gisbert's message to wealth managers is clear: understand the market, know your client, and know your product. By combining transparency, independent research, long-term thinking, data quality, and disciplined monitoring, wealth managers can improve investor outcomes and ensure funds continue to serve their intended purpose.

Fund Selection Strategies: Beyond Past Performance (2026)

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